Equity Analysis /
Thailand

Thailand (Bualuang): Residential Property - Stay selective ahead of presales

  • AP, SPALI, and LH to post strong 1Q22 presales

  • 1Q22 earnings to rise YoY but fall seasonally QoQ

  • Expect strong launches during 2Q22

Phoowadol Phoosodngern
Bualuang Securities
8 April 2022

On Mar 15 we shifted down our ResProp sector call from OVER-WEIGHT to NEUTRAL. In the short run, ResProp stock prices will consolidate, due to market concerns over the risk of higher finan-cial costs and because most of the firms’ XD dates are in Apr-May. Our top BUY calls are LH (impressive 1Q22 presales expected) and AP (only modest downside risk tied to inflation against scope for upside).

AP, SPALI, and LH to post strong 1Q22 presales

We assume aggregate coverage 1Q22 presales of Bt52bn (79% low-rise, 11% condo), up by 6% YoY and 14% QoQ. Low-rise presales should be strong at Bt41bn, up by 9% YoY and 16% QoQ. Condo presales are expected at Bt11bn, down 3% YoY (but up 9% QoQ, following a surge in condo starts in 4Q21 and 1Q22). We expect AP, SPALI, and LH to post 1Q22 presales growth leadership—Bt13bn for AP (up by 63% YoY and 67% QoQ), Bt8.5bn for SPALI (up by 18% YoY and 30% QoQ), and Bt7.8bn for LH (up by 2% YoY and 18% QoQ). ANAN and PSH will report the weakest 1Q22 presales, we believe.