Thailand (Bualuang): Residential Property - New launches rose MoM in April

  • Unit launches rose in April …
  • …but take-up rates slumped
  • Subdued launches expected in May

The Agency for Real Estate Affairs (AREA) reported heavier MoM launches for Apr (we had assumed seasonal slippage), but the take-up rate dived. We don’t expect many launches in May, due to the new COVID-19 outbreak. Our top picks are SPALI (hefty profit growth, 2Q-4Q21, secured by its presales backlog), AP (the cheapest PER of 6.3x), and LH (the sector bellwether with a great dividend yield for 2021 of 7.0%).

Unit launches rose in April …

AREA reported launches of 3,283 units for April, up 12% MoM (beating the seasonal pattern of slippage), led by low-rise categories. But launch value was Bt9.2bn, down 13% MoM. New SDH starts totaled 786 units, up 32% MoM, led by the Bt2-5m price segment. TH starts were 1,537 units, up 19% MoM, concentrated in the Bt1-3m/unit segment (89% of TH launches). In contrast, condo starts were 960 units, down 7% MoM. Only new condos priced in the Bt1-3m range launched during April. The proportion of launches by SET-listed firms rose from 70% in Mar to 80% in Apr. Among our coverage, PSH unveiled low-range condo and TH projects, SPALI started mid-range TH and SDH developments, and SIRI launched a high-end SDH estate.

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