Equity Analysis /

Thailand (Bualuang): Residential Property - Launches dived MoM in March

  • Unit launches fell MoM, led south by condo, as expected

  • Take-up rate dived in March

  • Launches to decline seasonally in April (Songkran)

Bualuang Securities
18 April 2022

The Agency for Real Estate Affairs (AREA) reported MoM falls in mean take-up rate and unit launches (but launch value rose) for Mar. And we expect launches to drop MoM in Apr (the Songkran holiday). We suggest letting profits run on AP (1Q22 profit growth leader and only modest downside risk tied to inflation). We also like LH in expectation of hefty 1Q22 presales of Bt7.8bn, up by 2% YoY and 18% QoQ, and a 2.7% final dividend yield.

Unit launches fell MoM, led south by condo, as expected

AREA reported launches during Mar of 7,236 units, down 13% MoM, led south by condo starts. Launch value was Bt35bn, up 90% MoM. SDH launches totaled 1,613 units, up 116% MoM, concentrated in the Bt3-10m/unit segment. TH launches were 2,908 units, up 445% MoM. Condo starts were 2,585 units, down 63% MoM (but condo launch value rose 10% MoM, due chiefly to a high-end launch—125 SATHORN, 755 units, Bt8.9bn project value,). The proportion of launches by listed developers rose from 50% in Feb to 58% in Mar 2022. Among our coverage, AP, SIRI, and LH launched low-rise projects (no developers under coverage started a new condo in Mar).