Launch activity and take-up rates increased MoM in Feb (and we expect heavier MoM low-rise launches in Mar). Coverage presales will increase QoQ in 1Q22. We suggest taking positions in LH (conservative launch plan, good cost control, and a 2.7% final dividend yield) and AP (the clearest revenue visibility—new condo transference—and a high dividend yield of 4.8%).
Unit launches increased MoM, led by affordable condo
AREA reported launches in Feb of 8,272 units, up 11% MoM, led by low-end condos. Total launch value was Bt18bn, down 34% MoM. Condo starts came to 6,990 units (the highest monthly number since 2020), up 24% MoM, led by the Bt1-2m price segment (51% of condo launch value was the 5007-unit project, Regent Home Bangna). SDH launches totaled 748 units, down 32% MoM, concentrated in the Bt5-10m/unit segment. TH starts were 534 units, down 25% MoM. The proportion of launches by listed developers dived from 95% in Jan to 50% in Feb 2022. Among our coverage, SIRI and SC launched low-rise projects. None of the developers under our coverage started a new condo in Feb.