Equity Analysis /

Thailand (Bualuang): Industrial Estate - Sector super-cycle about to start!

  • Unexciting 3Q21 outlook

  • Release of pent-up demand to boost 4Q21 bookings and sales

  • 2022—COVID-19 easing to enable new sector super-cycle

Kijapat Wongmetta
Kijapat Wongmetta

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
5 November 2021

The 3Q21 outlook is dull, but both AMATA and WHA will recover fast in 4Q21 and the recovery will build momentum into 2022, supported by production migration from China to other juris-dictions, the release of pent-up demand, a weaker baht, expanding clean energy capacity, and new EV-related start-ups. Note that we have rolled over our investment horizon from YE21 to YE22 and upgraded our AMATA call from HOLD to BUY.

Unexciting 3Q21 outlook

Our models point to the 3Q21 core profits of both AMATA and WHA declining YoY, due to lower land transference (hit by the hard lockdown and travel restrictions) and slimmer GMs among SPPs (a rising gas cost trend against a largely unchanged power price). We forecast 3Q21 core earnings of Bt157m for AMATA (down by 33% YoY and 24% QoQ) and Bt232m for WHA (down by 47% YoY and 18% QoQ).