Equity Analysis /
Thailand

Thailand (Bualuang): Hospitality - Playing the vaccination rollouts

  • How will vaccinations rollout?

  • Healthcare sector will enjoy the first and up-front benefits

  • How will recovery play out for tourism?

Bualuang Securities
18 January 2021

The hospitality sector is the best play for 2021 agenda year of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts led by advanced countries. MINT’s performances in Europe (about 65% of hotel’s revenue) will quickly recover in summer-2Q21. Healthcare will get upfront benefits on vaccination rollout in Thailand and pent-up demand of foreign patients. Then, Thai tourism sector has high hopes for recovery after travel ban lifting. We prefer BDMS, BH, AWC and MINT. 

How will vaccinations rollout?  

The WHO’s Emergency Use Listing (EUL) opens the door for countries to expedite their own regulatory approval processes to import and administer the COVID-19 vaccine. Worldwide countries have struck deals to secure vaccine access that cover more than half of the world’s population. Most of the secured vaccine coverage contracts have been made in Canada, USA, UK and European countries, in Figure 1. 

In Thailand, two competing vaccines have been confirmed for use in the state program of 63m doses or 45% of Thailand’s population by YE21. FDA aims to approve two million doses of the CoronaVac vaccine (50-79% effectiveness) developed by Chinese company Sinovac on Feb 14, 2021 for swift vaccination of 0.2m doses in late February, 0.8m in March, and 1m May. The Oxford University/AstraZeneca (62-90% effectiveness) has been secured via technology transfer and will start its first contract (26m does) in May and the remaining 35m does by YE21, in Figure 2. The government has prioritized vaccine for frontline medical staff, people with congenital diseases, elderly, and high-risk groups.