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Thailand (Bualuang): Energy - Expansive core earnings expected through 1H21

  • 1Q21 aggregate core earnings to jump YoY and QoQ

  • Further demand improvement to boost core profit growth in 2Q21

  • Potential street profit forecast upgrades amid improving outlook

Suppata Srisuk
Suppata Srisuk

Equity Research Analyst

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Bualuang Securities
27 April 2021

The core operations of our Energy coverage look set to improve QoQ through 2Q21, driven by a demand recovery, seasonality, and tight supply. Furthermore, the 2021 market outlook and prospects for earnings are strengthening. The current metrics of Energy stocks remain bargains. Our top picks are PTTEP and TOP; SPRC is a TRADING BUY on the gasoline high season theme.

1Q21 aggregate core earnings to jump YoY and QoQ  

We expect the Energy names we cover—BANPU, PTT, PTTEP, BCP, IRPC, SPRC, and TOP—to post an aggregate 1Q21 NPAT of Bt43.5bn, a YoY turnaround and up 73% QoQ, and core earnings of Bt31.9bn, up by 61% YoY and 71% QoQ. Big inventory gains and operational improvements were the drivers of the modeled jump in aggregate NPAT.