Equity Analysis /

Thailand (Bualuang): Consumer - Near term earnings play

  • Weak leading indicators in 3Q21

  • Mostly poor 3Q21 results forecast: Healthcare sector shines

  • Top-five winners are BCH, CHG, BDMS GLOBAL and SPALI

Bualuang Securities
20 October 2021

Healthcare sector is the best play on pending 3Q21 results with earnings upgrades. Other consumer sectors are suffering short-term earnings hiccups. Top-five winners in terms of 3Q21 profits comprise record core profit forecasts for BCH and CHG: YoY and QoQ growth for BDMS, YoY growth for GLOBAL and SPALI.  Looking to 4Q21, consumer earnings are broadly recovering.

Weak leading indicators in 3Q21

Our survey indicates overall negative performances in 3Q21 on Same-Store-Sales (SSS) and property presales, in Figure 2-4. Top-three SSS winners are GLOBAL (+12% YoY), DOHOME (+15% YoY) and MAKRO (+0.5% YoY). Most retailers are expected to report SSS declines YoY in 3Q21: -5% for BJC, -10% for CPALL, -9% for hardline CRC, -35% fashion CRC, -15% food CRC, -14% for HMPRO, and -20% for ILM. Among restaurants, MINT will show outperforming SSS at -9% YoY in 3Q21 against deeper SSS plunges for others: -28% YoY for CENTEL and -48-20% for AU and M. Coverage ResProp presales are estimated at Bt43bn in 3Q21, down 9% YoY and 16% QoQ. Low-rise presales growth seen at 10% YoY but down 6% QoQ and a 13-year quarterly low condo presales in 3Q21 (down 62% YoY and 54% QoQ).