We expect Beverage coverage earnings to rise YoY in 2023, but they won’t recover to 2019-21 levels, due to higher costs. We prefer CBG over OSP, due to its stronger earnings outlook and profitability metrics.
Better outlook, but not the best
Our 2023 Beverage coverage earnings growth forecast is 20% YoY, supported by lower cost pressures (mostly aluminum for packaging; also natural gas), export growth, and new product launches. We assume Thailand energy drinks market value of Bt19.76bn in 2022, up 3% YoY, and Bt20.55bn in 2023, up another 3% YoY, supported by substantially heavier construction and logistics activity in Thailand and new product launches. That said, our 2023 market value assumption is 8% below the 2019 number, due to tough competition among beverage categories (energy drinks, functional drinks, ready-to-drink tea, etc). Our NEUTRAL sector call stands.