Equity Analysis /

Thailand: Bank - Loans dipped 0.77% MoM in November

  • BBL, BAY, and KBANK led MoM lending decline for November

  • Lending and deposit rate rises ahead

  • 4Q22 earnings projected to rise 25% YoY (flattish QoQ)

Poramet Tongbua
Poramet Tongbua

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
22 December 2022

We expect several commercial banks to raise interest rates on fixed deposits (but not on CASA accounts). NIMs will drive 2023 profit growth. We have an OVER-WEIGHT sector call. BBL and KBANK are our top picks.

BBL, BAY, and KBANK led MoM lending decline for November

The aggregate net-lending of the eight banks under coverage slipped 0.77% MoM in November (versus a mean MoM increase of 0.5% for the past five years), but was still up 2.07% YTD. The MoM slippage was due to big-ticket loan repayments by the clients of several big banks (particularly BBL). KKP, TISCO, and KTB posted the strongest MoM net-lending increases of 1.1%, 0.9%, and 0.77%, respectively. In contrast, BBL, BAY, KBANK, SCB, and TTB reported MoM net-loan declines of 3.5%, 1.0%, 0.7%, 0.33%, and 0.12%, respectively. Big banks will lead loan growth this year, supported by the domestic economic recovery.