We estimate 2Q22 Bank coverage aggregate earnings of Bt48.9bn, down by 2% YoY and 5% QoQ. Our models also point to an aggre-gate profit of Bt198.6bn for 2022 (up 11% YoY), led by lighter LLPs, loan growth, and a slightly fatter mean NIM (up 1bp). We have an OVERWEIGHT sector call. BBL and KBANK are our top picks.
2Q22 coverage profit should be flattish YoY and QoQ
Our aggregate 2Q22 earnings estimate is Bt48.9bn, down 2% YoY—despite lighter LLPs (the mean credit cost peg is assumed to have eased from 163bps of loans in 2Q21 to 133bps in 2Q22) and lending growth (we expect 5.5% YoY). The expected aggregate slippage is due to projected YoY profit falls of 49% for BAY (in 2Q21 BAY sold shares in Ngern Tid Lor Plc into TIDLOR’s IPO) and 3% for KTB (heavier OPEX). In contrast, BBL (led by lighter LLPs and lending expansion), TTB (lighter marketing spend), and KKP (loan growth and lighter LLPs) will lead YoY earnings expansion, according to our estimates, with rises of 27%, 27%, and 25%, respectively.