Equity Analysis /
Thailand

Thailand: Bank -1Q22 profit set to rise YoY and QoQ; better QoQ outlook for 2Q22

  • 1Q22 coverage earnings should rise YoY and QoQ

  • 2Q22 coverage profit likely to dip YoY but rise QoQ

  • Post-COVID earnings recovery ahead; BBL and TTB to do best

Poramet Tongbua
Poramet Tongbua

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
8 April 2022

We estimate 1Q22 Bank coverage aggregate earnings of Bt48.1bn, up by 5% YoY and 14% QoQ. Our models also point to an aggre-gate profit of Bt195.8bn for 2022 (up 9% YoY), driven by lighter LLPs, loan growth, and fatter NIMs. We have an OVERWEIGHT sector call. BBL and KKP are our top picks.

1Q22 coverage earnings should rise YoY and QoQ

Our models point to the eight banks under coverage posting aggregate 1Q22 earnings of Bt48.1bn, up 5% YoY, driven by lighter LLPs (the mean credit cost peg is assumed to have eased from 147bps of loans in 1Q21 to 139bps in 1Q22) and lending growth (we expect 6.5% YoY). BBL and BAY will lead YoY profit expansion, according to our estimates, with rises of 16% and 13%, respectively. In contrast, we expect TISCO and KTB to mark YoY bottom-line slippage of 6% and 1%, respectively, due to lower non-NII.