Planting of the 2022/23 US soybean (SB) accelerated in Jun while the crop’s condition has been rated as good-to-excellent, led by heavier rainfall in the Midwest from mid-May to Jun. Overall, these factors point to an anticipated record 2022/23 US and global SB output. Given the recent retreat of global SB price, we think the SB price has passed its peak in Jun and will decline in 2H22 thanks to the record 2022/23 production of US, Brazil and worldwide. Our HOLD rating stands on TVO for a 6-7% dividend yield.
2022/23 US crop condition—68% rated as good to excellent
Based on the USDA’s recent Crop Progress report, the US SB planting was 94% complete as of Jun 19, only 3 percentage points below last year but one point ahead of the 5-year mean. This was despite the slow start in May caused by heavy rain and cool weather which led to planting delays in Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota. However, the planting in these three states has hastened in Jun with a 97% completion in Minnesota (against 100% as of a same period of last year), 92% complete in North Dakota (against 100% last year) and 98% complete in South Dakota (against 100% last year). We have seen much better progress in Jun than in May.