Equity Analysis /
Thailand

Thailand: Agro & Food - Malaysia to halt live chicken exports starting Jun 1

  • Malaysia to ban the exports of live chicken effective Jun 1

  • Supply disruptions in Singapore—an opportunity for Thailand

  • Bigger Thai chicken export volumes to Malaysia and Singapore

Prasit Sujiravorakul
Prasit Sujiravorakul

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
26 May 2022

Malaysia’s suspension of live chicken exports effective Jun 1 is likely to cause supply disruptions in Singapore, as 34% of its chicken imports are sourced out of Malaysia. In light of this, Thailand stands to benefit from enlarged export volumes to Malaysia and Singapore to meet the shortfall. Of the three listed chicken operators, we predict that GFPT will gain the most considering its highest export share to Malaysia and Singapore, followed by TFG and CPF. We reiterate our TRADING BUYs on GFPT, TFG and CPF, led by their fatter livestock margins in 2022.

Malaysia to ban the exports of live chicken effective Jun 1

Starting Jun 1, Malaysia will halt the exports of live chicken to ensure the sufficient supply in the domestic market, following the recent surge in its chicken prices amid the chicken supply shortages. Moreover, the need to get permission to import live chicken, whole or cut chicken has been dropped to boost the domestic supply. The factors affecting its chicken supply are the rising feed costs, disease outbreaks and the weather conditions. Malaysia currently exports live chicken of some 3.6m birds/month, with exports rising from 40m in 2007 to 59m birds in 2020. The Malaysian Agriculture and Food Industries Ministry is now reviewing applications for poultry plants in different countries including Brazil, China and Thailand to supply chickens to Malaysia.