Equity Analysis /
Thailand

Thailand: Agro & Food-Livestock: Thai livestock prices to rise further in 2Q22

  • Thai live pig and live chicken prices to rise again in Apr 2022

  • Positive for Thai pork and Thai chicken margins

  • We reiterate TRADING BUY calls on GFPT, TFG and CPF

Prasit Sujiravorakul
Prasit Sujiravorakul

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
3 May 2022

GFPT remains our top pick in the Agro-Food space as the pure chicken play benefitting from the Thai chicken price up-cycle, its chicken export volume recovery and the bigger share of profits from its two affiliates. TFG and CPF are our second-tier picks led by both stronger performances of Thai pork and chicken units. However, CPF will still be impeded by net loss of Chinese pork unit in 1H22 before its improvement in 2H22. With the expected further rise in Thai livestock prices in 2Q22 outweighing the sustained high feed costs, we are upbeat about fatter Thai livestock margins in 1H22.

Thai live pig and live chicken prices to rise again in Apr 2022 

Based on the data from the Department of Internal Trade (DIT) and the Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE), the provincial live pig price in Nakhon Pathom province leapt 14% in Apr from Bt86/kg (Mar 14-Apr 3) to Bt98/kg (Apr 11-29) while that in Chachoengsao province rose 13% from Bt94/kg (Mar 11-Apr 3) to Bt106/kg (Apr 25-29). The Bangkok live pig price also rose 10% from Bt88.5/kg (Mar 11-Apr 3) to Bt97.5/kg (Apr 25-29). On average, the blended Thai live pig price for three regions increased 12% (from Bt89.5/kg on Apr 1 to Bt100.5/kg on Apr 29).