Equity Analysis /

Thailand: Agro & Food - High season of livestock demand seen through 1H23

  • High day-old chick and piglet prices imply breeder shortage

  • Marginal impact from Sep-Oct flooding; rebound expected in 4Q22

  • The 20-month high of Chinese live pig price

Bualuang Securities
18 October 2022

The 3Q22 low season of livestock demand will be followed by the 4Q22 high season of year-end and new-year festivities and thereafter Chinese New Year in Jan. On top of the persisting tighter livestock supply, the livestock prices are likely to sustain high through 1H23.  

High day-old chick and piglet prices imply breeder shortage

The day-old chick price has sustained high at Bt19.25/bird since Jul 19 (against its record-setting Bt22.25/bird in Apr-Jun 2011), while the piglet price has soared to its high of Bt3,600/head since May 17 (against its all-time high of Bt3,700/head in Jan 2022). We regard both breeder prices as super-high, implying persisting breeder stock shortages. Hence, they should strengthen the farmgate pig and chicken prices through 2023. We assume that the Thai pork up-cycle will continue at least through mid-2023, led by sustained high piglet price. We are now more bullish on the Thai chicken up-cycle than before which we see extending through mid-2023 due to the sustained high day-old chick price. The life cycle starting from grandparent chickens to day-old chicks is about one year.