The AREA survey for Jun 2022 indicated swift unit growth in launches—the highest number since the advent of COVID-19 in 2020, but the take-up rate declined MoM. We expect MoM launch growth for July; 3Q22 should be the biggest quarter for project starts of 2022. Our top picks in the sector are AP (a compelling valuation and a strong outlook) and LH (a 3Q22 profit surge, fueled by heavy condo transference).
Strong MoM launch growth in Jun, as expected
AREA reported launches of 12,658 units in Jun 2022, up 19% MoM from the high base set by May (Bt43.7bn, flat MoM), driven by low-rise. SDH starts totaled 2,618 units, up 69% MoM, concentrated in the mid range to high-end (Bt5-10m/unit). TH starts were 4,217 units, up 86% MoM—AP, PSH, and SIRI launched TH projects in June. Condo starts totaled 5,807 units, down 13% MoM, concentrated in the low-end (below Bt2m/unit)—SIRI and LPN both launched condo projects. The proportion of launches by listed developers rose from 81% in May to 87% in Jun 2022. Among our coverage, AP, LH, PSH, SC, SIRI, and SPALI started new low-rise estates.