The AREA survey for Aug 2022 showed a MoM jump in unit launches and a slight MoM take-up rate increase. We expect MoM launch growth for Sep, which should be the heaviest month for starts of 3Q22. We suggest accumulating LH ahead of a 3Q22 profit surge and for its compelling valuation and strong outlook, AP for its heavy Sep project launch schedule, and SC for its exciting 4Q22 outlook, driven by the transference of three condos.
MoM jump in launches in Aug across all categories, as expected
AREA reported launches of 9,591 units in Aug 2022, up 54% MoM, with rises across all categories. SDH starts totaled 2,867 units, up 89% MoM, concentrated in the mid-range to high-end (Bt5-20m/unit). AP, LH, SC, and SIRI launched new SDH projects in Aug and SIRI unveiled a new high-end SDH estate, Narasiri Krungthep Kreetha (86 units with prices ranging Bt50-130m/units, 100% booked). TH starts were 2,156 units, up 17% MoM—AP launched a mid-range TH project in Aug (BAAN KLANG MUANG Phaholyothin-Vibhavadi, 163 units). Condo starts totaled 4,568 units, up 64% MoM, concentrated in the low-end to mid-range (Bt1-3m/unit). The proportion of launches by listed developers rose from 68% in Jul to 71% in Aug 2022. No ResProp firm under our coverage launched a new condo project in Aug.