Strategy Note /

Thai Market Strategy-Dragon unchained (and hungry)!How to play China’s reopening

  • Re-enter the Dragon—weight/size/height?

  • How high could it fly? Evaluating the China effect

  • A guide to playing the dragon’s re-entry

Poramet Tongbua
Poramet Tongbua

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
25 January 2023

China's costly fight against COVID-19 has squeezed global GDP growth. But Beijing’s abrupt policy reversal in Dec 2022 is a gamechanger. The unchaining of the dragon promises to boost global trade and super-charge the Thai tourism industry recovery this year.

Re-enter the Dragon—weight/size/height?

China is very important to the Thai economy because it is: 1) our second-biggest direct export market, buying 12% of exports in 11M22 (against 11.7% in 11M19), and 2) in 2019 was our biggest tourism market by a big margin. Global economic growth has been slow recently, but China’s reopening will boost world (and Thai) trade and (and Thai) GDP. Going forward, tourism will be a major driver of the Thai economy.