Strategy Note / Thailand

Thai Market Strategy: 3Q20 earnings preview: QoQ recovery in 3Q20 and 4Q20

  • 3Q20 SET bottom-line set to jump QoQ, but still dive 29% YoY
  • 4Q20 SET earnings to increase further QoQ
  • More sectors saw earnings forecast upgrades for 2021 in October

3Q20 profit recoveries are on-track—stronger in some sectors (especially in Electronics and Food) than in others. Earnings quality remains a key theme, given the ongoing risks, such as the domestic political situation, US election uncertainty, and macro-economic risk tied to resurgent global COVID-19 infections. Market anticipation of vaccine development, more economic stimulus, and a sustained macro recovery (assuming no new round of tight lockdowns) could limit SET downside in the short-term; then the market could start rallying when the uncertainties are settled.

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