Equity Analysis /

Thai: Healthcare-1Q22E earnings playbook: Stronger demand for COVID-related care

  • Strong earnings growth expected for 1Q22E

  • High COVID-19 infection rates likely to persist for months

  • Healthcare profitability is an effective inflation hedge

Bualuang Securities
21 April 2022

We are fully confident that the Healthcare sector will announce a great quarter for 1Q22, with rises across both COVID-related and conventional revenue. BDMS should be the best earnings perform-er among our coverage. BH will benefit from Thailand’s reopening. BDMS and BCH are the best plays on COVID-related income.

Strong earnings growth expected for 1Q22E

We estimate an aggregate 1Q22 Healthcare coverage core profit of Bt7.3bn, up 262% YoY (but down 6% QoQ), led by healthcare revenue (Bt37bn, up 63% YoY and flat QoQ) and core margin (20%, up 11% YoY but down 110bps QoQ). BDMS should post record core earnings of Bt3.1bn (up by 134% YoY and 12% QoQ). We also expect core profits of Bt703m for BH (up by 617% YoY and 6% QoQ), Bt2.5bn for BCH—up 659% YoY (flat QoQ)—driven by COVID-related income, and Bt1.0bn for CHG, up 298% YoY (but down 45% from the record high 4Q21 number, when it marked Bt200m in one-off extra income).