Equity Analysis /
Thailand

Thai: Commerce-Monthly SSSG check—heavy rains meant reduced store traffic in Sep

  • Heavy rains and flooding cut traffic to stores in Sep 2022 …

  • …but we still expect accelerated SSSG for 3Q22

  • Profit should trough in 3Q22, then recover in 4Q22

Bualuang Securities
5 October 2022

Traffic to stores declined in Sep, discouraged by heavy rains and flooding, which will have had some impact on Sep same-store sales. However, given solid Jul and Aug SSSG (from a low 3Q21 base), 3Q22 SSSG should still mark strong recovery.

Heavy rains and flooding cut traffic to stores in Sep 2022 …

Foot traffic to retail stores in Thailand was discouraged by heavy rains and flooding during Sep 2022, especially in the provinces. We still expect CRC, CPALL, and MAKRO to mark double-digit SSSG for 3Q22, but Big C and Lotus’s are likely to mark SSS declines in the 1-2% range for the month. We believe that, in addition to heavy rains in Sep 2022, in 3Q21 consumers stocked up heavily, which may make for weak 3Q22 SSS for Big C and Lotus’s.