Equity Analysis /

Thai (Bualuang): Agro&Food -Soybean: Concerns over drought in the Midwest in Apr

  • Lower-than-estimated prospective plantings; record-low SB stocks

  • Record-high Brazil SB exports in Mar; robust US SB exports YTD

  • Warmer- and drier-than-usual in the US

Bualuang Securities
19 April 2021

We think that USDA’s surprisingly lower-than-expected estimate on US soybean (SB) planting areas and its 5-year low tally of total US SB stocks in Mar point to the tightening 2021/22 US stockpile. Moreover, the abnormal drought condition in some states in the Midwest has raised concerns over prospects for the upcoming US crop during May-Oct 2021. Our TRADING BUY stands on TVO, based on robust 1H21 earnings and a high dividend yield.