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Thai (Bualuang): Agro&Food-Livestock: Vietnam’s pork supply on the rise in 2021

  • Vietnam suspends imports of live pigs from Thailand
  • Small negative impact on Vietnam and Thailand’s live pig supply
  • Vietnam’s industrywide pork supply on the rise in 2021

Despite the marginal impact from Vietnam’s suspension of live pig imports from Thailand effective Jun 30, 2021 and Vietnam’s currently sporadic small-scale ASF (African Swine Fever) outbreaks, we think that the bigger issues lie in its swift pig herd recovery to 89% of the pre-ASF level at YE20, the accelerating rate of its sow repopulation among large-scale operators and the ASF vaccine commercial production in Vietnam in 3Q21 which will be the key risk factors to Vietnam’s live pig price decline in 2H21-2022. We are bearish on livestock sub-sector but reiterate our BUY on CPF and TRADING BUY on TFG due to their cheap valuations. 

Vietnam suspends imports of live pigs from Thailand

On May 28, 2021, Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) notified the Thai Embassy in Hanoi of the suspension of live pig imports from Thailand to prevent the spread of ASF disease to its domestic pigs, which will be effective as of Jun 30, 2021. According to the notice of the quarantine agency which falls under the Department of Animal Health of Vietnam, the agency discovered during the quarantine process on May 19 that the batch of 980 live pigs imported from Thailand to Vietnam for slaughtering for food was infected with ASF. Vietnam had allowed, for the first time, imports of live pigs from Thailand for raising/slaughtering in Jun 2020 to make up for its domestic shortages. The chief of the Thai Department of Livestock Development has recently denied that pigs exported to Vietnam in May were infected with ASF prior to shipping.


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