Equity Analysis /

Thai: Bank-Aggregate 1Q22 profit beat! Slight earnings forecast upgrade for 2022

  • 1Q22 aggregate profit beat our estimate and the street

  • Aggregate lending rose by 6.4% YoY and 1.0% QoQ

  • NPLs down by 0.1% YoY and 0.1% QoQ

Poramet Tongbua
Poramet Tongbua

Equity Research Analyst

Bualuang Securities
26 April 2022

The 1Q22 aggregate earnings of the eight banks under coverage was 8% above our estimate (mainly due to lighter LLPs than assumed). For 2022, we forecast an aggregate profit of Bt199.4bn, up 11% YoY, led by lighter LLPs and faster loan growth. Our OVERWEIGHT sector weighting stands. KKP and BBL are our top picks.

1Q22 aggregate profit beat our estimate and the street

The eight banks under coverage posted aggregate 1Q22 earnings of Bt51.8bn, up by 13% YoY and 23% QoQ. The number was 8% above our projection, and 5% ahead of the consensus. BAY, KBANK, and SCB were in line with our expectation. The profits of KKP, KTB, TISCO, and TTB beat our models, mostly because of lighter LLPs than assumed (higher non-NII than assumed for KKP and lighter OPEX than assumed for TTB). In contrast, BBL missed our estimate (lower non-NII than assumed).