We expect the heightened geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine to not only affect tourists from Russia but also those from Europe. While we believe Centel’s food business will continue to provide some cushion, it will be insufficient to put Centel in the black in FY22F. We downgrade from Hold to Reduce with an unchanged THB36 target price (16x FY23F EV/EBITDA, -0.5 s.d. from 5-year mean).