Equity Analysis /
Thailand

Forth Corporation: TAO BIN is still cool

  • Consumers remain thirsty for TAO BIN

  • Supply-chain problems cleared in mid-2022

  • Expansion in 1Q23

Napon Jaisan
Napon Jaisan

Equity Research Analyst

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Bualuang Securities
23 January 2023

Is TAO BIN still doing ok, now that the hype has eased? Yes! Sales per vending kiosk remained steady through-out 2H22, and FORTH is building and deploying new vending machines (and upgrading existing kiosks).

Consumers remain thirsty for TAO BIN

Since the peak of the hype over TAO BIN, the number of drinks sold per machine has fallen from 76/day in 2Q22 to a little over 50/day in 4Q22. We think our 50 drinks/day/machine assumption is appropriate because: 1) sales in greater Bangkok (about 2,300 machines) are stable at about 50 drinks/day, 2) machines that sell notably fewer drinks/day than the standard are moved to new locations, 3) new locations are chosen based on population density, and 4) the average of 50/day was during the rainy and cool seasons (sales/machine/day are very likely to rise during the hot season). We also believe our Bt30/drink price assumption makes sense, as pricier dairy/Oreo/Ovaltine drinks are popular, especially with students (soda is cheaper, so the mean price declined from Bt34-36/drink in early 2022, but soda drinks carry fat sales margins).