Kerry Express (Thailand): Suffer now and live the rest of your life as a Champion!—Muhammad Ali

  • Result miss
  • KEX reported 1Q21 NPAT and core earnings of Bt303m
  • Revenue declined by 13% YoY and 1% QoQ

KEX’s aggressive pricing strategy will impact its earnings in the short-term. But its market share will expand, making for stronger competiveness against peers, especially while its competitors are being squeezed by higher refined petroleum product prices. While its peers will report deep losses for 2021, KEX will mark earnings, implying greater cash resources to invest in new businesses and/or enhance its service quality, improving its market position. The firm’s long-haul growth story (in tandem with rapid consumer adoption of e-tail) stands unchanged. Once the COVID-19 situation eases, incomes, confidence in the future, and willingness to spend will start recovering. At that point, we expect e-tail activity (and KEX’s parcel volume) to rise sharply. BUY!

Result miss

KEX reported 1Q21 NPAT and core earnings of Bt303m, down by 19% YoY and 19% QoQ. Those numbers were 17% short of our estimates (lower revenue than assumed) and 16% below the street.

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