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Ozon: Strong 1Q21 results, raises 2021 GMV growth guidance – Neutral-to-positive

  • Ozon (OZON US: N/R) reported its 1Q21 IFRS results
  • Number of orders accelerated to 161% y/y from 137% y/y posted in 4Q20
  • Share of marketplace in GMV reached 58.4%, accelerating from 52% in 4Q20

Ozon (OZON US: N/R) reported its 1Q21 IFRS results. GMV (+135% y/y) and revenue (+68% y/y) remained on a strong growth path, while some deceleration from 4Q20 seasonal peak is in line with expectations. 1Q21 OCF returned to negative zone after temporary positive 4Q20 being mainly affected by payables increase after strong trading in Q4. Company upgraded its 2021 GMV growth guidance to 100% y/y (90%+ before), leaving capex guidance unchanged. Overall, we see the reporting as Neutral-to-positive for the stock price.

  • Number of orders accelerated to 161% y/y from 137% y/y posted in 4Q20.

  • GMV (incl. services) growth expectedly was softer than seasonal peak in 4Q20 (147%), but still strong enough at 135% y/y (better than 127% y/y in Q3 and better than Yandex.Market’s 126% y/y in Q1). Thus, orders vs. GMV dynamics points for average check decrease from the end 2020, which is the common market trend taking into account faster-than-average FMCG category expansion.6

  • Share of marketplace in GMV reached 58.4%, accelerating from 52% in 4Q20.

  • Revenue was up 67.5% y/y to RUB33.4bn, expectedly decelerating from 80% y/y growth in 4Q which reflects adjustments to the commission structure made in February 2021. Revenue from sales of goods expanding 42% y/y (vs 56% y/y growth in 4Q). Service revenue saw a 3.2x y/y boost to RUB9.0bn.

  • Adj. EBITDA was negative at RUB4.9bn compared to negative RUB4.5bn 1Q20 and negative RUB3.6bn in 4Q20. Adj. EBITDA as percentage of GMV incl. services improved to negative 6.5% from negative 14.2% a year ago (-4.7% in Q4). The improvement was largely a result of growing business scale and efficiency gains, as despite 43-130% y/y growth of key cost items in absolute terms, they were down as % of GMV.

  • OCF came at negative RUB12.1bn compared to negative RUB2.4bn in 1Q20 and temporary positive RUB10.6bn in 4Q20. Negative OCF was mainly affected by payables increase after strong trading in Q4.

  • Ozon spent RUB2bn in capex in 1Q20 (10-8% of RUB20-25bn capex planned for 2021)

2021 guidance upgrade. Company raised its 2021 GMV incl. services growth guidance to 100% y/y (from 90%+ guided earlier). Capex guidance remained unchanged.

Conference call. Management will host a conference call later today at 15.30 Moscow time / 13.30 London / 8.30 New York on Tuesday, May 18, 2021. Live webcast can be accessed here.


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The contents of this document have been prepared by Joint Stock Company “Alfa-Bank” ("Alfa Bank") as Investment Research within the meaning of Article 36 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/5...

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