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Thai Oil PCL: Street-beating 1Q21 profit; story looks even better for 2Q21

  • Above estimate
  • TOP reported a 1Q21 net profit of Bt3,360m
  • The lube operating rate increased to 93% from 81% in 1Q20

Expectations of 2Q21 core earnings growth and a YoY bottom-line turnaround for 2021 should prompt the market to bid up TOP’s stock price going forward. Its current valuation is undemanding—a YE21 PBV of 1.0x (1SD below its long-term mean of 1.5x). Our BUY rating stands.

Above estimate

TOP reported a 1Q21 net profit of Bt3,360m, a YoY turnaround but down 54% QoQ. Stripping out extra items, the core profit would be Bt1,553m, a YoY and QoQ turnaround. NPAT was 19% above our estimate (and 30% ahead of the consensus), due to lower SG&A expenses and financial costs than modeled.


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