Our BUY call stands, premised on a strong business growth profile, supported by a swiftly increasing number of sales points—5,005 at end-March with a stable average loan value/sales point of Bt14.5m. We expect loan growth to continue through 2021, but we now assume a NIM for this year of only 17.2% (rather than 17.9%), due to price-cutting in an environment of intensifying competition.
Profit was below our expectation
MTC posted 1Q21 earnings of Bt1.37bn, up 11% YoY (flattish QoQ). The result was 6% below our projection and 3% shy of the Bloomberg consensus, due to a slimmer NIM than expected (we had assumed 18.6%; MTC marked only 17.2%). Pre-provision operating profit came to Bt1.9bn, up 27% YoY but down 14% QoQ. Earnings for 1Q21 comprise 22.4% of our old full-year forecast of Bt6.1bn.