Equity Analysis /
Thailand

Advanced Info Service PCL: Short-term blip of weaker 3Q22 earnings

  • QoQ stable mobile competitive climate in 3Q22

  • 3Q22 mobile revenue to be flattish YoY and QoQ

  • 3Q22 core service revenue to rise marginally YoY

Bualuang Securities
3 October 2022

Despite an anticipated weaker 3Q22 core profit, we still expect 4Q22 core profit to recover modestly YoY and QoQ. Our BUY rating stands, premised on its core profit recovery from 4Q22 and its cheap valuation—EV/EBITDA of 7.45x against its recent high of 8.76x in Mar 2022.

QoQ stable mobile competitive climate in 3Q22

The degree of mobile competitive intensity has stabilized during 2Q-3Q22. Only TRUE has been offering aggressive pricing promotions but ADVANC and DTAC haven’t followed suit. ADVANC and DTAC have removed the “free all-network voice call” feature for most provincial locations since 3Q22 while TRUE has continued to do so in 3Q22. Moreover, ADVANC has removed the “Fixxy” postpaid packs from the market—“Bt300 for 10Mbps speed” and “Bt499 for 15Mbps speed”—since Jul 2022 and moved those customers to the 5G pack of Bt399 with 30GB usage. It is a good sign that two operators are trying to uplift prices by removing low-priced packs and the “free all-net voice call” feature.