Quantitative Analysis /
Russia

Russian stock index rebounds, but the worst is yet to come

  • The MOEX Index is up 28% in dollar terms since reopening on 24 March

  • The ruble is responsible for 19% of the rise, but Putin will no doubt be happy that market capitulation has been avoided

  • However, we forecast for the index to plunge 72% in dollar terms over the next nine months

Russian stock index rebounds, but the worst is yet to come
James Huckle
James Huckle

Quantitative Analyst

Tellimer Research
4 April 2022
Published by

Overview

The Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) Index has rallied 28% in dollar terms to US$32 since re-opening on 24 March – following a month of suspended trading – but this is likely only due to the restrictions put in place that prevent foreigners from selling Russian stocks. The index remains down 29% from the beginning of the year.

The trading restrictions put in place at the MOEX may help prop up the market for now, but if and when the government allows unrestricted trading to commence then it seems inevitable that the ever-increasing economic sanctions put on Russia will be too much for its businesses to bear.

Even Russia’s largest company, Gazprom, is down 26% in dollar terms from the beginning of the year despite much of Europe still being heavily reliant on its energy supplies.

Quantitative 12-month forecast

Our machine-learning model forecasts a reasonably linear 72% drop to US$9 by the beginning of 2023 as the price breaches the bottom of the 11-year downward sloping channel. A partial recovery to US$21 is expected to occur by the end of the forecast period in April 2023.

Economic sanctions

The current economic sanctions can be felt across the entire Russian economy, but naturally further sanctions that target its energy and metals exports or its financial institutions will have the most noticeable consequences for the index going forward, as those sectors account for 85% of the overall weight.

MOEX Index sector breakdown