Russian oil embargo impact

  • If Russian oil is embargoed, alternatives are available but will take time; EM oil exporters suffer less than importers

  • We estimate impact on net fuel exposure and current account across EM if Brent averages US$125 in 2022 (US$71 in 2021)

  • Oil embargo cuts Russia's access to cash to fund war and autarky but may drive escalation (desperation) in short term
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