Macro Analysis /
Russia

Russian Macro Stats 9M21: Relief in inflation picture likely to be delayed

  • Russia’s retail trade continues to surprise to the upside and has gained 8.4% y/y in 9M21, exceeding our forecast

  • Retail trade up 8.4% y/y in 9M21, above our expectations

  • Inflation could end 2021 at 8.0% y/y, especially given the recent weakness in the ruble exchange rate

Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova

Chief Economist

Alfa
23 November 2021
Published by

Russia’s retail trade continues to surprise to the upside and has gained 8.4% y/y in 9M21, exceeding our forecast. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% in September and real salaries growth stayed firm at 3.0% y/y for 8M21.

The combination of high inflationary expectations (13.6% in October) and high inflation are likely to trigger an earlier than expected spike in New Year holiday spending and may prevent a deceleration of the inflation rate below 8.0% by December 2021. Government plans to fund an extra increase in social spending in 2022 also favor inflationary expectations staying high for while.