Russia's forward PE is below 5x (MSCI Russia or MoEx equity indices), a 25% discount to the 5-year median. This is close to previous troughs seen after global shocks – the financial crisis in August 2008 and the oil price crash in December 2014 – as well as local ones – the Georgia war in August 2008 and the Crimea annexation in March 2014.
If the cost of invasion is now too high for Russia, this amounts to an attractive entry point. The combination of NATO unity, the arming of Ukraine, US sanctions, the move closer to NATO by Sweden and Finland, and Germany's apparent concession on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline implies that this may be the case.
For a fuller discussion of why Ukraine may be a step too far in Russia's strategy to rebuild influence and control in its buffer states, click here, and for the latest in the ongoing diplomatic circus, click here.
