Macro Analysis /
Russia

Russia: Economy Ministry compels the CBR to make a 50bps rate hike in October

  • Sharp inflation spike to 7.4% y/y in September puts at risk the CBR’s intention to shift to a smaller 25bps rate step

  • Inflation spike driven by a jump in food inflation of 9.2% y/y in September which could be a one-off

  • Economy Ministry’s new 2021 YE inflation forecast of 7.4% y/y may force the CBR to act with a 50bps rate hike in October

Natalia Orlova
Natalia Orlova

Chief Economist

Alfa
13 October 2021
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