Only three weeks ago we made a forecast that the Russian ruble would make new lows over the coming months, but few could have anticipated the speed at which the conflict would escalate between Russia and Ukraine – which has consequently seen the ruble tumble 29.5% against the dollar in the last two weeks alone to 0.0095 (105 rubles to a Dollar).
Quantitative 12-month forecast
Our machine-learning model forecasts the ruble to continue to fall consistently through to August until it hits the bottom of the major channel at around 0.0059 (169 rubles to a dollar) – a drop of 37.9%. A rebound back to near current levels is expected leading up to December, before ultimately settling at 0.0077 (130 rubles to a dollar) by March of next year – a fall of 18.9% from current levels. It is possible that it could begin to stage a small recovery through the latter half of 2023.