Quantitative Analysis /

Ruble turns to rubble

  • The Russian ruble has tumbled 29.5% against the dollar in the last two weeks alone

  • The Ukrainian hryvnia is fairing significantly better, limiting its fall to only 6.2% during the same period

  • We forecast the price to fall to 0.0059 (169 rubles to a dollar) in the coming months – a further drop of 37.9%

Ruble turns to rubble
James Huckle
James Huckle

Quantitative Analyst

Tellimer Research
2 March 2022
Published byTellimer Research


Only three weeks ago we made a forecast that the Russian ruble would make new lows over the coming months, but few could have anticipated the speed at which the conflict would escalate between Russia and Ukraine – which has consequently seen the ruble tumble 29.5% against the dollar in the last two weeks alone to 0.0095 (105 rubles to a Dollar).

Quantitative 12-month forecast

Our machine-learning model forecasts the ruble to continue to fall consistently through to August until it hits the bottom of the major channel at around 0.0059 (169 rubles to a dollar) – a drop of 37.9%. A rebound back to near current levels is expected leading up to December, before ultimately settling at 0.0077 (130 rubles to a dollar) by March of next year – a fall of 18.9% from current levels. It is possible that it could begin to stage a small recovery through the latter half of 2023.