Macro Analysis /
Russia

Ruble exchange rate - Depreciation-bias view is structurally rooted

    Natalia Orlova
    Natalia Orlova

    Chief Economist

    Alfa
    3 September 2019
    Published by
    Our year-end 2019 target of RUB67/$ has already transpired in August, reflecting weakness in Russia’s growth case and persistent sanctions concerns. The fair value ruble metrics we use have become more divergent in the last six month, with two metrics still guiding for RUB68-71/$, while another two are anchoring expectations at RUB61-63/$. Expectation of stronger GDP growth in Russia in 2020 and the environment of lower global interest rates may play in favor of an exchange rate at RUB65/$ by the year end. Going forward, it runs a high chances of being negatively affected by the US presidential election campaign, the pressure of new ecological standards and a growing trade dependence on China, which justifies the RUB70/$ forecast for the end of next year.