Macro Analysis /
Romania

Romania: GDP jumps by 13% y/y in Q2, quarterly recovery keeps easing

    EmergingMarketWatch
    17 August 2021
    • Rebound is slightly below expectations, likely due to weakening public investment, slower recovery of external demand
    • Quarterly increase is 1.8% q/q, slowing from revised 2.5% q/q in Q1; GDP rises 6.5% y/y in H1
    • We think recovery comes from industrial, consumption and agriculture rebound
    • Weakening public investment is probably cushioned by private investment recovery
    • Net exports very likely had a negative contribution to GDP growth
    • We expect private consumption to gain speed in Q3, public investment rebound is crucial for sustainable growth