Romania: GDP contracts 0.2% y/y in Q1, notably milder than expected

  • Local economists forecast contraction ranging between 1.8% and 1.4%
  • Quarterly rise is 2.8% q/q, also considerably above 0.1-1.1% expectations
  • We think good performance comes from better-than-expected industrial rebound, investment and private consumption
  • Agriculture's contribution probably improved as well, but we see weaker activity in construction, negative contribution of net export

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