Recession fixation is not reflected in forecasts and won’t impact rates yet
Markets are fixated on US recession risk but this is not yet reflected in the forecasts or market data
And the Fed will likely continue to hike rates until there is a sustained fall in inflation and/or rise in unemployment
EM investors – for now – should be more worried about global inflation risks than a possible recession

Senior Economist @ Tellimer Research
Chief Economist & Head of Fixed Income Research @ Tellimer Research
