Oma recorded solid growth in 4Q21, supported by passenger demand improvement and profitability expansion. Adjusted EBITDA continued above pre-pandemic levels
Given the rise in the share price and valuation of 11.9x FV/Adjusted EBITDA, which we believe already incorporates much of the favorable outlook, we lower our recommendation to Hold
Closes 2021 with passenger traffic getting closer to pre-pandemic figures. Oma's quarter results showed significant progress due to greater dynamism in passengers and a low comparative base ─although a little more normalized. Therefore, total traffic presented an annual increase of 62.1% (-10.0% vs 4Q19), which in hand with higher rates approved in the Master Development Program 2021-2025 and a better performance in diversification activities (+53.2 % y/y), led to an increase in the sum of aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenues of 65.7% y/y to MXN 2.031 billion (+6.1% vs. 4Q19), in line with our estimates. This, together with higher operating leverage and cost and expense control, resulted in an increase in Adjusted EBITDA of 78.3% to MXN 1.521 billion (+8.5% vs. 4Q19), placing the margin at 74.9% (+5.3pp), slightly better than expected. The advance at majority net income of 323.7% was surprising, driven by foreign exchange gains contrasting with the losses of 4Q20. We highlight financial strength with an Adj. ND/EBITDA of 0.4x. Positive outlook reflected in the stock price. Incorporating the figures, the FV/Adj. EBITDA multiple decreased from 13.3x to 11.9x. However, we believe that much of the favorable perspective has already been reflected in the increase in share price (+22.1% since our 3Q21 note), with a valuation level similar to the average of 5 years before the pandemic (12.2x). Hence, we modify our recommendation to Hold.
