BBL’s 2023 earnings growth will be driven by lending expansion (chiefly, corporate business), a fatter NIM (as interest rate rise), and lighter LLPs. We anticipate a dividend yield for 2023 of 3.2%. BBL is our top Bank sector pick. BUY!
Earnings were 20% below our expectation
BBL reported a 4Q22 profit of Bt7.6bn, up 19.8% YoY but down 1.1% QoQ. The result was 20% below our projection (and 13% shy the Bloomberg consensus), due to lower non-NII than assumed, largely because of losses on financial instruments. Pre-provision operating profit came to Bt17.8bn, up 14% YoY but down 10% QoQ. Full-year earnings comprise 94% of our 2022 forecast of Bt31.2bn.