Our HOLD call stands. MTC currently trades at a 2023 PER of 12.8x, below its historical range, but we forecast a 2023-24 earnings CAGR of 16%, significantly slower than its previous trend. The following unfavorable factors are in play: 1) heavy LLPs, due to deteriorating asset quality, 2) intensifying competition (led by new market entrants), and 3) rising funding costs. Our YE23 target price is Bt43, pegged to PBV of 2.6x (long-term growth of 5.6% and Ke of 11%).
Result was below our estimate
MTC posted 3Q22 earnings of Bt1.21bn, flattish YoY and down 12.7% QoQ. The result was 6% below our estimate (and 14% shy of the Bloomberg consensus), due to heavier LLPs than assumed. Pre-provision operating profit was Bt2.4bn, up by 44% YoY and 8% QoQ. 9M22 earnings comprise 73.8% of our full-year forecast of Bt5.4bn.