2022 earnings look set to slide 12% YoY, due to the effect of the one-off gain from selling shares in Ngern Tid Lor Plc in 2Q21. But stripping out that one-off gain, our model points to the 2022 bottom-line rising 19% YoY, driven by loan growth, higher non-NII, and a lower credit cost. Moreover, there would be scope for upside to our earnings projection, if BAY were to set lighter LLPs and/or achieve stronger loan growth than we currently assume. Our BUY call stands.
Earnings were in line with our estimate
BAY posted a 1Q22 profit of Bt7.4bn, up by 14% YoY and 16% QoQ. The result was in line with our projection (and the Bloomberg consensus). 1Q22 earnings comprise 24.9% of our full-year projection of Bt29.8bn.