KKP’s bottom-line will expand YoY through 2023, we believe, driven by lending and non-NII growth (even though NIM is likely to decline some-what, as funding costs will probably rise faster than the lending yield). We have raised our 2023 earnings forecast by 8.6% to Bt8.8bn (up 7.5% YoY), as our YoY loan growth assumption has upsized from 5% to 12%. And we expect KKP to pay a generous dividend for 2023 of 6.9%. Our investment horizon rolls over to YE23 with a new target price of Bt95.50, pegged to a PBV of 1.3x.
Result was 19% above our expectation
KKP posted a 3Q22 profit of Bt2.08bn, up by 41.0% YoY and 2.5% QoQ. The result beat our projection by 19% (and the Bloomberg consensus by 10%), due to strong lending growth (we had assumed that the loan portfolio would be flattish QoQ; it expanded 6.9% QoQ) and high non-NII. 9M22 earnings comprise 81% of our old full-year forecast of Bt7.6bn.