Our 2023 earnings forecast upsizes by 11.1% to Bt14.7bn (up 5% YoY), as we have cut our credit cost peg assumption from 1.35% to 1.24% and raised our NIM assumption from 2.90% to 2.96% (supported by high-yield loan growth). Our 2023 NIM assumption is 3bps lower than our 2022 assumption, as we expect funding costs to rise a bit faster than TTB’s lending yield next year. A generous dividend of 4.2% is anticipated for 2023. We have rolled over our investment horizon to YE23 with a new target price of Bt1.45, pegged to a PBV of 0.61x.
Result was 16% above our expectation
TTB posted a 3Q22 profit of Bt3.7bn, up by 57.0% YoY and 8% QoQ. The result beat our projection by 16% (and the Bloomberg consensus by 33%), due to lighter LLPs (we had modeled for Bt4.8bn; TTB reported Bt4.4bn) and higher NII than assumed. 9M22 earnings comprise 79% of our old full-year forecast of Bt13.1bn.