Thailand’s COVID-19 blowout and the start-ups of the Pink and Yellow lines make for a dull FY21-22 profit outlook. But afterward, BTS’s earnings will expand impressively (operational revenue will rise faster than fixed costs). Moreover, if the govt could accelerate the vaccine rollout, we would expect speculative flows into BTS in anticipation that use of public transport would soon rise substantially in Bangkok. As such, we maintain our BUY call.
Net and core earnings beat estimates
BTS reported a 1Q21 (Apr-Jun 2021) net profit of Bt1,383m, up 212% YoY but down 18% QoQ. The bottom-line was 137% ahead of our estimate (much bigger extra gains than assumed) and 55% above the consensus. Stripping out extra items, the core number would be Bt937m, up by 111% YoY and 104% QoQ. Core profit beat our estimate by 61% (a lighter cost-of-sales and greater interest and other income than we had assumed) and the street by 12%.