Predictions of Putin's demise are overplayed: Precedents from EM

  • The Russia-Ukraine War has set Russia on a path to autarky (economic isolation) and conventional military impotence

  • Iran et al. suggest this is not sufficient for regime change; it may reinforce authoritarianism and non-conventional war

  • It makes Russia an even more unpredictable geopolitical actor for its relative foes (US, EU) and allies (India, China)
November 22nd, 2022
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